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A Map of the Statistical Collision Risk in LEO

This paper summarizes the full suite of statistical collision risk products provided by LeoLabs that characterize the probability, consequence, and risk of debris-generating and mission-terminating collisions by object type and altitude. Our Conjunction Mapping Tool, for example, maps the hot spots (i.e., local maxima of mass density, spatial density, PC, and risk) in LEO. This tool provides a means to compare and contrast the relative importance of space traffic management and space debris management. The regularly updated assessments from the Conjunction Mapping Tool provide insights into several recent relevant topics: (1) the risk posed by the breakup of Cosmos 1408, (2) identifying massive derelict objects for removal/remediation, (3) examining the consistency between traditional statistical collision risk with aggregate CDM risk, and (4) potential effects from the cataloguing of sub-10 cm debris.

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